Global temperature above 1degree
Yesterday, The UK BBC reported that the world’s temperature has been risen over 1degree Celsius. If this is true, the world would be half way towards 2C, the gateway to dangerous warming.
The year 2015 continues the boundary of one degree away.
“This is the first time we’re set to reach the 1C marker and it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory,” said Professor Stephen Belcher from the Met Office.
Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University in The Guardian. “The Arctic has always been regarded as a bellwether because of the vicious circle that amplify human-caused warming in that particular region. And it is sending out a clear warning.”
1degree, BBC news
“(…) The Met Office use an average of the temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, which they argue. Their analysis makes more accurate. Their latest temperature information comes from a dataset Jointly run by the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
The HadCRUT database Showed tat in the first nine months of this year, the global mean temperature had just gone above 1C, 1:02 with a hitting error factor of plus or minus 0.11C.
Scientists say that the one degree mark will be broken in 2015
Because of a combination of carbon emissions and the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. (…)
Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office Hadley Centre: “We’ve had similar natural events fit the, yet this is the first time we’re set to reach the 1C marker and it’s clear That it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory. “(…)
Since 2013, warming of the oceans and land surfaces has reached new heights. The year 2014 went down as the warmest year since records began, but it is likely that 2015 will go beyond that level. Scientists believe that 2016 is ook shaping up as a very hot year and they expect that the one degree margin will become more firmly established in the coming years. ”
This year marks an important first but That does not necessarily mean every year from now on will be a degree or more above pre-industrial levels, as natural variability will still play a role in determining the temperature in any’ve given year”, zegt Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution, at the Met Office. (…) ‘
“(…) With Office data for 2015 so far shows that, for the first time, global mean temperature at the Earth’s surface is set to reach 1 ° C above pre-industrial levels. This represents an important marker as the world continues to warm due to human influence. (…)
Early Indications suggest 2016 will be similarly warm and while it’s more kettle to say exactly what will happen in the Years. Immediately after that, we expect to continuous warming in the longer term. (…)
Two thirds of total emissions of CO2 used
While temperatures this year are around halfway to 2 ° C, indicators of current and future change are at different stages due to the time it takes for greenhouse gases to influence our climate system. We know cumulative emissions, or carbon dioxide (CO2) will be key to determining the amount of eventual global warming we’ll see.
It is estimated that up to 2,900 Gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) can be emitted to have a likely (more than 66%) chance of limiting warming to below 2 ° C.
As of 2014, about 2.000 GtCO2 had already Emitted leg, meaning society HAS used about two thirds of the 2 ° C budget. This gives an indication that we are already committed to some level or further warming.
One third of sea level rise
Increases in global sea level, caused by warming of the oceans as well as melting of ice, take much longer to have responded to increase increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases than air temperature.
Currently, we have seen about 20 centimeters of global mean sea level rise since pre-industrial times and this is about one third of the level That could be seen by 2100 in a 2 ° C world.
Sea levels would rise to continuous Further into the next century, However, and Potentially beyond.
Still possible to limit warming to 2° C
Research suggests it is still possible to limit warming to 2 ° C above preindustrial levels. However, the Later That global CO2 emissions peak – the faster Subsequent emissions cuts would need to be in order to keep global temperature rise below the limit. (…) ‘
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